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Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system 下载免费PDF全文
We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015 相似文献
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In this article, we study aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components. We show that the decreasing likelihood ratio property is closed under the formation of random minima. We also show, by counterexamples, that other aging properties are not closed under the formation of random minima or maxima. Some mistakes in the literature are corrected. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 238–243, 2014 相似文献
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研究了正反向量子斯特林循环的最优性能.在经典极限下,导出了循环的有限时间热力学性能界限和优化准则.得到了斯特林热机、制冷机和热泵特性参数之间的优化关系. 相似文献
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Bivariate life distribution models are of importance for studying interdependent components. We present a generic approach by introducing a new concept of characterized model in stead of a characterized distribution. It strikes a balance between characterization and modeling approaches to eliminate their individual limitations and incorporate their respective strengths. The proposed model, being a characterized one, admits many important properties irrespective of the choice of marginal distributions. The retention of univariate IFR, DFR, IFRA, DFRA, NBU, and NWU class properties in the bivariate setup has been ensured along with some results on series combinations and convolution. No other models, available in the literature, can ensure simultaneous retention of these fundamental and extremely important class properties. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004 相似文献
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Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004. 相似文献
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We consider the problem of scheduling customer orders in a flow shop with the objective of minimizing the sum of tardiness, earliness (finished goods inventory holding), and intermediate (work‐in‐process) inventory holding costs. We formulate this problem as an integer program, and based on approximate solutions to two different, but closely related, Dantzig‐Wolfe reformulations, we develop heuristics to minimize the total cost. We exploit the duality between Dantzig‐Wolfe reformulation and Lagrangian relaxation to enhance our heuristics. This combined approach enables us to develop two different lower bounds on the optimal integer solution, together with intuitive approaches for obtaining near‐optimal feasible integer solutions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that applies column generation to a scheduling problem with different types of strongly ????‐hard pricing problems which are solved heuristically. The computational study demonstrates that our algorithms have a significant speed advantage over alternate methods, yield good lower bounds, and generate near‐optimal feasible integer solutions for problem instances with many machines and a realistically large number of jobs. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004. 相似文献
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An age‐dependent repair model is proposed. The notion of the “calendar age” of the product and the degree of repair are used to define the virtual age of the product. The virtual failure rate function and the virtual hazard function related to the lifetime of the product are discussed. Under a nonhomogeneous Poisson process scenario the expected warranty costs for repairable products associated with linear pro‐rata, nonrenewing free replacement and renewing free replacement warranties are evaluated. Illustration of the results is given by numerical and graphical examples. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004. 相似文献